Forecasting Few Is Different, Part 1
When dealing with sales forecasts that concern fast-moving as well as slow-moving items, we must account for the non-proportional scaling of relative forecast uncertainty with selling rates, which largely determines the achievable level of precision. Executive summary For the same forecast quality, predictions for slow-moving…
You Should Not Always Have Known Better: Understand and Avoid the Hindsight Selection Bias in Probabilistic Forecast Evaluation
This blog post on forecast evaluation discusses common pitfalls and challenges that arise when evaluating probabilistic forecasts. Our aim is to equip Blue Yonder’s customers and anyone else interested with the knowledge required to setup and interpret evaluation metrics for reliably judging forecast quality. The…