Forecasting Few Is Different, Part 2
This is a two-part story by Malte Tichy about dealing with sales forecasts that concern fast-moving as well as slow-moving items. Find Part 1 here. How precise can a sales forecast become? The mechanism of fluctuation cancellation ensures that granular low-scale-forecasts are more imprecise, noisy…
Forecasting Few Is Different, Part 1
When dealing with sales forecasts that concern fast-moving as well as slow-moving items, we must account for the non-proportional scaling of relative forecast uncertainty with selling rates, which largely determines the achievable level of precision. Executive summary For the same forecast quality, predictions for slow-moving…