Calibration and Sharpness: The Two Independent Aspects of Forecast Quality
What Is a Good Forecast? Forecasts are like f…
How To Fix Mean Absolute Error, Part 2
Part 2: How the Ranked Probability Score reco…
How To Fix Mean Absolute Error, Part 1
The deceiving surprises that Mean Absolute Er…
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) Has Served Its Duty and Should Now Retire
Executive summary According to Gartner (2018 …
Forecasting Few Is Different, Part 2
This is a two-part story by Malte Tichy about…
Forecasting Few Is Different, Part 1
When dealing with sales forecasts that concer…
You Should Not Always Have Known Better: Understand and Avoid the Hindsight Selection Bias in Probabilistic Forecast Evaluation
This blog post on forecast evaluation discuss…